Portfolio Management Method for Deadline Planning
نویسندگان
چکیده
We introduce a portfolio management method that uses effort estimates to build sets of feasible deadlines for software projects at the bidding stage. Effort estimates can involve considerable error, and this must be taken into account when selecting deadlines. We show how a simple probability model can allow for possible errors. The model is built using a single effort estimate for each current project, together with historical data on estimated and actual effort for former projects. The probability model is used in two ways: firstly to find the probability of successfully meeting a set of proposed deadlines; and secondly to select deadlines that deliver a fixed probability of success. Rather than treating projects in isolation, we work with the full company portfolio, enabling setbacks in some projects to be balanced by gain in others. Our method is implemented with demonstrations in the tool PROJMAN.
منابع مشابه
Investment Decision-Making about Portfolio of Technology Development Projects; Based on the Analysis of Success Criteria using Fuzzy Neural Network and MADM
Technology development project is a type of investment project and it is important to identify the performance indicators and planning for the correct investment. The purpose of this research is the development of indicators of portfolio success, accurate analysis of the effects of indicators on each other and the achievement of a proper investment model. In this research, the success criteria ...
متن کاملProject Portfolio Risk Response Selection Using Bayesian Belief Networks
Risk identification, impact assessment, and response planning constitute three building blocks of project risk management. Correspondingly, three types of interactions could be envisioned between risks, between impacts of several risks on a portfolio component, and between several responses. While the interdependency of risks is a well-recognized issue, the other two types of interactions remai...
متن کاملA Novel Selection Model of Optimal Portfolio based on Fuzzy Goal Planning, Considering Types of Investors
Assessing risk assets is one of the most important research issues in the financial field. There are various pricing models of capital assets in financial. In many models, it is not possible to consider a lot of restrictions on portfolio selection. In this paper, for choosing optimal portfolios, taking into account the prosperity and recession periods, and the types of investors in terms of ris...
متن کاملMulti-Agent Based Project Portfolio Management Approach
In project portfolio management, the sources of change, task interactions, and the necessity for distributed planning should be considered. Most existing project methods have difficulties to produce desired results in highly dynamic multi-projects environments. In this paper, we present a project portfolio management approach with multi-agent. We described the types of agents used in project po...
متن کاملDynamic retirement withdrawal planning
This paper develops a dynamic model of retirement withdrawal planning that allows retirees and financial planners to improve the probability of retirement portfolio success while simultaneously increasing the average withdrawal rate. The key elements of the model are periodic adjustments of retirement withdrawal rates based on both portfolio performance and remaining life expectancy, and Monte ...
متن کامل